Once Nixon had finished the trip, Fischhoff and Beyth asked participants to recall their initial predictions. To do this, Fischhoff and Beyth asked participants to predict how likely the various outcomes to then US President Nixon’s upcoming trip to China and the Soviet Union were. Interested in the phenomenon and its application to the predictability of political events in hindsight, Fischhoff joined with researcher Ruth Beyth-Marom to test the hypothesis in 1975. He was motivated by an article by Paul Meehl on doctors exaggerating their feeling of having known all along how their patient cases were going to turn out. Motivated by the seminal work of his supervisors, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, on heuristics, Baruch Fischhoff was the first to study hindsight bias experimentally. While the “knew it all along” phenomenon is not new, its formal scientific study started in the early 1970s. Research shows that our actions are often subconsciously motivated to promote a positive view of ourselves. It also feels nice to think that your predictions were right or that you “knew-it-all-along” even if you might not have. This can motivate us to see unpredictable events as predictable.
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